War and Jug's Handle
I will try honestly not to get adapted to others' ideas and not to beautify my own perceptions.
In this war, sometimes openly and sometimes secretly, has been leading by Russian powers for a long time already. This process is as old as the legend about Amiran chained to the Caucasus, and has not been stopped even when the state was governed by the Georgian man himself.
In the nearest history too, up to disintegration of the Soviet Union, "preventive" intensification of Russian aggression was observed against namely our country.
Building of the future on the base of post-soviet new relations, reciprocal respect and love, even due to knowing their language, had to make politically indivisible the principal interests of these two countries. Elections of all level had to be gained by pro-Russian political forces. Instead of friendship, the great Russian political machine encouraged by the great military power started preparation for war against us, but in reality it injured interests of Russia and till now there is no other way of its solution. Thanks to its own adventure and pre-war propaganda, to inspire hatred towards us in common Russian population, Russian imperialists painted intricately the situation, as if this hatred against Russians was rooted in Georgians and then they started agitation of these "facts" staged by them via mass media. Back in the eighties, when in front of the Palace of Government, on Rustaveli avenue, "the hatred of Russians and other nations was pouring in non-civil national excitation, especially of Russians and by means of up to hundred meters length "stage decorations", Russian television, showed this show staged by its our special services. In reality, not far to that place, within twenty meters distance, a man of any nation, even Russian officers at the invitation of hospitable Georgians, competed with each other in drinking wine in a wine cellar and swore to each other the century love. And often romances were heard from the windows nearby. Then and now the Russian propaganda justifies its own military crime by the phrases thrown by them for provocation, as if it is a motto of Georgians "Georgia for Georgians only", while every person of any country who even slightly knows Georgia, knows well that in Georgia, no one has ever felt or feels as foreigner or oppressed. The last open war, that of August proved that they could not achieve this maniacal desire, they could not make people leaving in Georgia hate each other. Patriotic declarations of Russians residing in Georgia, full of love of Georgia and Russia are enough to prove this attitude. The doubt that anybody else, powerful than Russia forced government of Russia incorrect scheme of adverse action, according to my opinion, is the fantasy of sensibly thinking Russians from the opposition, but not a real truth. I think that it is the irremediable disease, genetic disease of "derzhavist" mentality of their government. If anybody gathers the results of their stupidity, it is quite another think.
It is clear that after Eltsin, the power in Russia was seized by the representatives of "KGB" again. They have built a regular pyramid and a person who resides on its top, stays on the leading post for his whole life. If we take into consideration this scheme, no one can doubt as to who is and will be a chief person in the country, and it no cracks will appear in the strength of pyramid. In Russia, the head is a person, who supervises constantly practically major part of military and other power structures of Russia, that is, he who can shed more blood. In the new reality, with the purpose of ostentatious conformity with the civilized world, for the period between the constitutional terms, they selected the person, who would fulfill the role of a "president on duty".
And the world saw what happened. Mass media, justice, business are subordinated completely to the centralized control which acquired the form of preparation for revanchist, and from the very beginning, unjust war. And there were loud speeches about reconstruction of the block which was hostile to more wide, new reality not only to the old communistic Russia or soviet Union but relatively wide space. Old constitution does not fit them completely, because they are not willing to lose the abundant personal property, which was got hold by them. They don't want to lose even formal restriction of their personal freedom and personal might. Of course everybody has the right on choice, but the problem is that they, on the one hand, gave preference to the position that opposes the civilized world. On the other hand they wand to be friendly with the world conceived by them as enemy. Western world, with the solidity of the mighty one does not conceive them as real danger and enemy, although Russian "derzhavist whims and actions" will lead this process to that finally.
Now let's consider the events of August. A weak always hurries to manage timely anything. It seems lately Russia feels weakness and is hasty. It considered that if it did not manage to provoke real and permanent military actions in Georgia (or even replacement of the government that is coordinated with the west by its positions), nothing would stop integration of Georgia into NATO or Euro structures. Russia, feeling itself strong enough it did not hurry. It is a fact that it successfully, but slowly suppresses Georgia. Our major problem was somewhat neglected (it became a norm not to speak of the problem, we hardly managed to activate the theme) and Russia retained a mask of our friend in the eyes of the world.
Briefly, in the reality, which was mature for us and not adaptable for Russians, we could not avoid the war. Opinion that it was available by flexible policy is surprising, especially from the politicians of the opposition parties, who even at the support of the society, in political struggle, could not defend their own selves, to say nothing of their supporters, from cruel and unjust effect of the force.
The war was really inevitable, but Putin personally, as is seen, desired to blame us in starting of the war and desired to spread this opinion worldwide, according to his scheme. Therefore, mass media or agents were ready for it. As to him personally, he enjoyed the games of Olympiad. According to the Russian scenario, Georgia was to be inserted in military operations against Kokoiti and his volunteers (in reality probably with Russian special units dressed in their forms). If we managed to overcome and defeat separatists in the provoking fight and would achieve success, the official Russian military troops would appear and we would stop. Then Kokoiti would start again the attack and the same would happen, as it was earlier in Abkhazia.
As far as it is known about wars, the goal and the result of the assailant is replacement of undesirable government of the opposite country and cheating-bribing and oppression of its people. Regimes of neither Nazi nor communists dared to annihilation totally the population. It needs the resource of quite other scales. Old person, woman or even a child who is oppresses by the killer, if he has no place to run to, becomes dangerous. Million of furious persons can not be overcome by hundred thousand soldiers, even by the whole army of Russia. Even the regimes similar to the above stated ones, if they considered necessary to remove population from any territory, organized it after victory, at their own costs, by their own transport. If you listen well to the words of some oppositionists, we are weak and have no right to fight. According to their logic, the principal crime of our government is that it did not clean our territories from local population in organized way.
Calculation was such: if the fight with small number of separatists would last long, we ourselves would overthrow the current government as coward and impotent, waster of resources apportioned for self-defense. Putin would attain its goal and would say that he was tired of soothing and protection of the mad, that they did not even give him the chance to see Olympiad. Russia would retain the role of a dove and our integration with the civilized states would have been postponed for a long period.
The aggressor, disguised in the style of ostrich, was sure of one thing. However painful it had to be for Georgia, army of Georgia would not dare anything against any soldier of Russia, to say nothing of Russian army. According to their opinion, the guarantee of it was just finished "training" ("uchenie"), that is we had to be frightened by the military forces standing at the entrance of Roki tunnel. They knew that both, America and Europe permanently warned us and made us to avoid military crush with Russia. "Wait and we'll help you in peaceful way", our friends used to promise.
In August it was by this hope, prerequisites and plan that Russia renewed the aggression by the hands of separatists and disguised special units. Regular army did not wait long and joined the process and infringed frontiers of our state.
When military forces of Georgia easily neutralized military adventure of separatists and then annihilated aggressive "volunteer's special units", and then the real shock for de facto president of Russia, absolutely unbelievable thing happened, army of Georgia attacked the principal aggressor, official Russian army. This, as it turned out later, was not planned by any scenario developed in Russian strategies
This was the beginning of real exam for Putin and for Georgia too.
Putin faced the fact. His adventure failed and resulted in unpardonable great number of victims. Already exceeding the time permitted for the move he had to make measures without luxury of preliminary planning. He had two ways left only. He had to realize open immediate, really large scaled aggression against sovereign state declared by him, personally as such and thus to create serious political and economic problems for Russia or had to subdue his emotions, to keep himself for a small time and to provoke more convincible and justified base, be it even "explosion of Kremlin wall by Georgians" and to make really large scale "responding" ballistic blow on Georgia only after that. The problem in this second scenario, that is even insignificant retardation in the response was that now his personal political image would be under the serious risk. Already existing failure would not be excused by his military circles, for even small period. Neither would he be pardoned by Russian electorate- zombie. He could even lose his influences and it would not be far from his detention. He would even be made responsible for Chechnja, Beslan and many
mistakes of his, the new government could be cleaned from its sins at his expense, and he could even be brought before tribunal in Hague. If Russia would not be cleaned by this way really, which would be perfect for Russian people, it would manage to stay for a long time in the rows of states having pretence for civilization, and to become stronger economically and politically. Putin made his choice, he gave preference to his image. Within the frames of the possibility, by playing a role of a "strong guy" at all his might, he retained temporarily his electorate and influences.
The choice of Georgia was not less difficult.
Putin has saved his image but could not satisfy his ambitions.
Georgia has lost much but no significant changes were made. As to the currently occupied territories, even if these territories were of Russia before, due the already fixed facts of genocide of Georgians on this territory, Russia can not make obstacles to returning of refugees and respectively to restoration of Georgian jurisdiction, if it does not desire to be declared as the subject guilty in it. It was because of it, apparently that Putin was forced to declare independence of separatists, in order finally to undertake this crime, as the subjects formed as internationally needs. As to Russia, in this theme, it would help them from distance. At this initial stage of the war Georgia avoided the total loss and ruin and made significant military, political and economical injury to the far stronger enemy. Georgia, as such, managed to survive but was not satisfied.
How could the events progress further?
Military machine of Russia, on the hot path, really could attempt occupation of Tbilisi, and the population of Tbilisi expected it, but similar to Senaki, Poti or Gori Russia probably could not find support in Tbilisi, it had no resources enough for it. At the background of absence of political support such an attempt would fail.
But without it, irrespective of Russian propaganda that our military forces were ruined, I think that at all stages of the war of August, we really had and have now the resources, which, at due application, seems real for ruining or taking as war captives not too great military forces on our territory. Occupants, by air attacks only would not manage much. But in this case war of Russia would acquire for the whole world the form of provocation and dangerous escalation directly on the polygon of Georgia. The world, that is already awake from air aggression, at its hundred percent efforts would be unable to protect us, This, of course did not meet the plans of anybody, but in case of attack of Tbilisi no other way would have been left.
After Medvedev-Sarcozi-Saakashvili's agreement about stopping of the fire we are fulfilling terms of the agreement, while Russia as usual, does not fulfill them. It, namely after that agreement activated its aggressive and provoking military actions. Figuratively and in its direct meaning, it meant stopping of the fire, but Russia did not stop fire, on the contrary it burnt unique forests too after that agreement.
Namely such development of the events, neglect of the agreed upon international terms, made Russia to face economical problems.
Irrespective of blocking of information by Russian mass media means, all investors existing in Russia were seized by panic. If the state confronts the opinion and norms of the world, what will stop it from misappropriation of money or property of others?!. But for all investors the reliability of a partner is the most principal thing. Respectively investors started to withdraw their resources in a hurry. It touched not only the resources deposited in the banks. The problem is that nobody desires to hold any stocks, shares or assets in Russian space. All, including Russian investors, (if they dare) are eager to sell their assets existing the Russian space, the
resources, which are so non-protected in the hands of the current government and they are eager to deposit the withdrawn resources in more reliable places.
Investors considered expedient to sell their stocks, shares or any other assets and earlier perspective any asset of Russian jurisdiction at relatively low prices, then again at lower prices and so on and finally in their nominal prices and to shift, at the expense of any loss to more prognostic environment.
And dramatic fall of really precious (not to consider self-liquidation of Russia due to its government, in the eyes of the civilized world) assets started at the stock exchanges of Russia . Trade with some of those assets was permitted at the stock exchanges of New York, London and other big cities. Hasty integration of those assets on the world stock exchanges which was conditioned by kind attitude, trust and sincere desire of the west, resulted certain, not so sharp, but still, fall of prices of non-Russian similar portfolios. It was really inevitable because high prices of similar but politically reliable stocks, at the background of such super excess delivery of Russian assets, according to the economical fundamental law of demand-delivery - would surely fall. Theme of oil, at this background is less significant but known and understandable. Therefore let's follow classical example of making effect on the prices by means of correcting of its demand-delivery. Purchase of oil in great quantities and creation of gigantic reserves by America was followed by: increase of oil cost, enrichment of Russia and fall of exchange rate of dollar, and later, delivery of oil from the created reserves to oil market, decrease of its price, decrease of streams of dollars towards Russia and increase of exchange rate of dollar.
Shortly, this fall of exchange index on Russian assets, which was based on simple base resulted in relatively small, but painful for western common stable environment, fall of other exchange rates.
In the countries of market economics the major indicator for forecasting of economic success or failure is the rate of exchange indexes. The above stated processes conditioned economical crisis really everywhere. Changes were less painful in the countries (including Georgia) where the exchange market, to say so, does not exist, or if exists, is insignificantly integrated in the world system of stock exchange. As to the expected fall of the prices of the principal funds (that is something like the exchange index) the major reason, similar to all post-communist countries is permanent retardation of the main demand of the so called "Washington's consensus" - privatization and absence of knowledge in its deep meaning, its basic significance. Comparatively simple and trifle reason of it is the pre-war non-calculated with the view of marketing activity multiple building and developer companies. For these companies, the ruin which was conditioned by the war and the state orders apportioned for restoration jobs from the promised support, may turn out not ruinous but on the contrary, even the rescuer.
While speaking about economic crisis reigning in the world, the principal here is the fact that the crisis itself is not a war. It gives birth to destruction as well as, in distinct from the war, it favors construction too (any war conditions progress, but later). According to the saying, nothing is lost in nature, if one loses wealth, the other finds it. Who will suffer heavily from this crisis and who will gain from this crisis? Allow me not to surmise and to offer you relatively concrete prognosis.
Not to speak much I will repeat briefly some thesis: 1) In the world of free economy the exchange index is the major indicator; 2) At the stock exchanges every new broker, to say nothing of all solid participants, is waiting with the great excitement the high amplitude fluctuations, which, as a rule happens once in man's life and gives a chance of extreme enrichment; 3) During such moment the principle is the capacity to pay, alongside with scientifically substantiated knowledge in internal nature of the processes and the ability to see the risks correctly; 4) When the best assets of the world, temporarily are so dramatically cheapened, he gains surely who will purchase more desirable assets, even if he is forced to sell stocks which are cheapened lesser in order to collect money necessary for his goal; 5) Temporary repurchase of extremely cheapened assets of their major corporations by the state, that is, privatization and stopping of exchange index fall by it is managed only by the states where the main corporations are private and not state hold, as in Russia (!); 6) As we see, the great seven has the possibility to apportion free resources necessary for purchasing of desirable assets urgent for their future strengthening and power; 7) Monetary resources which can be apportioned with this purpose by Russia, are not sufficient for getting hold of assets thrown by others and respectively for improving even slightly the exchange indexes, to say nothing of repurchasing really precious its own Russian stocks, devaluated by internal capitalization,
For those who stand far from the above described economic, we'll consider here an example. Let’s consider that a sheikh holds 5% of "Gasprom", and earlier he did not want to sell it at the price less than 5 milliard, other stocks are hold by Russian state or members of the government (figures and participants in this example are conventional) after disappearance of the trust the sheikh is willing to sell his stocks at a lower price, but fails to sell and reduces its price. He is eager to sell this package, conditionally at 5 thousand dollars and to get rid from unreliable space. According to the reality, 1% of the stocks which earlier was quoted as 1 milliard dollars, now at the stock exchange is quoted at 1000 dollars, while the whole stock exchange market evaluates the whole "Gasprom" as 100 thousand dollars. Respectively the earlier wealthiest organization of the world now is not among the first hundred organizations and it can not attract long-term investments providing milliards. Respectively it will fail to develop technologically or in scales. Therefore it will fail to finance as it used earlier perspective programs and will be unable to keep its personnel. It is approximately the scheme according to which all those companies, the stocks of which at the stock exchange market suffer drastic depreciation, and in the country where this company is functioning, the unemployment rate increases. It should not be hard to understand that correspondingly the banks lose the area of successful investment of resources, corresponding incomes and that they are forced to decrease their expenditures and reduce number of their personnel too.
Therefore, proceeding from the above stated, the Great Seven and other financially powerful countries, in few months, maximum in one year will turn out many times wealthier and powerful, according to the newly fixed indices, than they were before the crisis. As to Russia, the cause of everything will hardly manage to stand duly on its roots. Investments and working places, at the existing political views, it seems will not be returned to Russia. It seems doubtful that it will manage to fund its regular military ambitions.
As to Georgia, "pretty and desirable toy" for Russia, drunkard, and drug addict will not manage to deprive it from the powerful, advanced athlete, but he can only break it.
States, in their relations often resemble people.
Relations between Russia and Georgia too, especially in the last years, excite associations. Thus for example on Broadway, where normal society uses to stroll with its families and together with their beloved, a bear-like youth, in relatively dark corner tries to oppress "small" elderly intelligent. This is seen by every pedestrian but they try not to look at it. The young man tries to kill a weak person slowly, without noise. If the old man tried to respond and rise noise, everybody would be forced to fix conflict and express his position. Everybody is against the oppressor, because otherwise, he will be considered coward by his family members (government in the eyes of its people) and in the eyes of each other, but no one dares to meddle and respond duly to the oppressor. On the contrary, it may happen that without due investigation the old man is declared as the initiator of the fight, because "they could not see how that fights started". All try to leave the place of conflict by any reason, to return home with dignity and to try from there to extirpate such events in future. Now the second example, if in a group of peoples, among their friends, relatives or neighbors there is a 200 kg "armed bomzh" who oppresses all without any reason, all warn each other to avoid him.
"Avoid a silly man" they say. If any oppressed will not endure more the oppression, breaks the nose of the other and that other responds to it, others, who stand looking at it will separate them and of course will say the same: "it is your fault, we had warned you, you had to stand aside". Although, at the same time, everybody likes that who made something that scratched their hearts. Now it seems that there is the same situation. If anybody is really frightened, these are the members of the oppressed, they are somewhat pleased that their family member is not killed and that they were saved too. In case of a state such relatives are members of political opposition. And they can not be blamed either.
Syndrome of fear in war conditions is another interesting theme. Initially I would say that threat seems dangerous from moderate distance. At the far distance, to say at Putin's distance, when he knows that the war is not on his territory, threat does not reach one (if he does not fear for his solder). A solder on the front is not afraid either. There is adrenaline there and generally a man is thus organized. Here motivation is vital. It is one thing when you try to protect your homeland and your own family, your self, in your home and you had chosen profession worthy of proud, that of a soldier voluntarily and in peaceful time you are better provided economically than persons of other professions. You are trying to master art of struggle with zeal, bravery, you advance in career and the glory is attainable in real war only. In this case a soldier is waiting for a war not as dangerous (at the conditions of modern military technology sitting at home is not less dangerous), of course at the risk of his life and health. You are waiting for it as the common respectable job, which in common life in case of building the desired state can not be given you. The case is quite opposite when a soldier, stupefied by propaganda is sent to other countries as an aggressor, with uncertain purposes for him, for indefinite time and without adequate provision, at small remuneration, when a soldier sees how better is your opponent provided, while your personal trophy, spoils of war, if you remain healthy and alive, are just objects
taken forcedly from the better life of your opponent, which, if you visited him as a guest would be presented by any peasant to a completely foreign guest in hospitable Georgia, that is to you. Probably majority of soldiers of Russian troops who participated in such non-motivated struggle was under the effect of drug or was drunk by vodka. When in direct fights Georgian soldier refined his mastership, most of Russian soldiers probably were unaware at whom they were shooting, who knows, may be they even killed each other. It was because of this factor that real heroes of Georgia when they were wounded strove to fight again, when a Russian soldier waited impatiently when he would receive order to return home. More dangerous, according to my opinion is the critical distance, when one can directly confront the danger in a short time when you have no sufficient and reliable information about it and about its results. In such a case panic and uncertainty in your own forces result in defeat earlier than in case of any military operation. At such moment the government must enjoy absolute trust. On the other hand it was probably because of it that, as old people used to say, during Stalin's war, those who used to spread panic were taken from the lines for bread and were shot on the spot. It is a known opinion that during a war a man must be afraid of his own government than that of his enemy. In any case a citizen must be absolutely sure that his government controls the situation and that every fact of high treason will not be left without attention and without punishment. It is clear that Russia does not suffer lack of its agents and spies in Georgia. I was very afraid that any such group, at the instruction of their patron, would meet Russian tanks with music and flowers. Even one case spread by Russian mass media would distort the reality and would shutter our real image, but it is a fact that no one dared.
Therefore, I felt some suspicion that I personally was not quite just in something when earlier I used to criticize without any compromise our government which had turned away from the straight path. Prior to the war in many disputes I was upset to encounter attempts to justify that when the president factually forced to subordinate to his might all branches of the power, our government imitated almost anything disgusting and silly acts of Russia. With the same success it stifled television, generally the democracy, it cruelly oppressed many facts of expression of free ideas, restricted capitals unknown to him, often was inadequate and lawlessly extremely strict, in case of reveal of mistakes never blamed adequately the forces guided by him and behaved as if nothing happened.
It was especially unbearable because at the same time I liked everything, which was liked by all. It is clear that no one is against electric power, against disappearance of thieves, against walking on good roads etc, but I liked many things which incited dissatisfaction of many, including the fact that the impossible was achieved and corruption in the state lost its mass character. Although I am not an absolute utopist as some and can not believe that in any, separately taken country corruption, as such can be extirpated completely, when such a fact has no precedent in the world and that in international relations we are often cruelly oppressed namely by shady money and informal deals. I liked when great resources were allocated for beautification of the state, and in the principle, attraction of assets and increase of their prices, the real prerequisite of future economic success. I liked swiftly rising of the above stated stock exchange index and in its response – intensification of economic activity, which was followed by the increase of the budget and rate of national currency, GEL, together with the paying ability of the population. I liked intensification of privatization process and zeal of Mr. Bendukidze, although in this sphere he failed to show sufficient knowledge and experience and the process turned
out the failure, as its was expected, from the beginning to the moment of his withdrawal from the occupied position. His declarations that privatization process would end in 18 months were not realized even in triple time. Due to ignorance, practically failed the reform, which was started according to principally correct scheme. It happened namely in the moment when the whole kindly disposed civilized world advised to intensify and not to hinder privatization, and generally economical reforms.
Now, in the specter of the war of August some deviations of the government from the straight road do not seem to me unbearable. Who knows, perhaps it was done deliberately, because of inevitability of the war and therefore, correctly or incorrectly from the interests of the country. It is difficult to distinguish from far distance both, a silly person and genius, no one can say correctly it without bias whether we have to deal with "Kvarkvare" or really legendary fellow from "Golden Cradle" . We'll get the convincing response to these questions only when even the possibility of Russian aggression will be stopped. But if the Russian style of governmental impudence still remains, we'll fall in a very bad situation. Everything will be reevaluated if we timely get sufficient guarantees of protection from external enemy and if we unite, at the support of the civilized world. And if after that any person turns out to be "Kvarkvare" really and continues his deeds, he will end badly. Up to that time we must be careful not to make mistakes, not to call coward and not to make lethal blow, to be regretted after, to the person fighting with a real giant and with many problems.
Today, as never before, it is necessary to have really stable, not based on fear, but based on conscious, deliberate integrity. I don't consider just in the criticism of present day opposition representatives that during air attacks our president had to open his shirt and shout loudly that he was there and was not afraid of anything, and to shoot at him, if they dared. I don't consider it just when they say that to have victims of war in the struggle for one's country is a crime. In such case Kakutsa Cholokashvili would not have been a hero. I don't consider correct either that when the leader of the enemy, who is many times stronger than we, uses in the war such illegal weapons of practical effect, which are prohibited in the civilized world - it is just to force the leader of your army to fight with bare fists. It is not just either to cry loudly for hearing by the world that your president uses the non-registered and unlawful tool (e.g. "TV control panel" , and shout that you saw it personally !!! To lodge a compliant about the fact when your country does not get in due time the support and to restrict him in his actions. When your mother is dying breaking of glass of drug store window is unlawful but if you can not manage timely to get a medicine which can save your mother, of course you will have no other way and you will brake the window glass.
Majority of the so-called economical experts was irritated when the TV channel "Caucasus" spoke of the well-known fall of exchange rate of national currency. Of course it was clear beforehand that the opposition would not miss such positions to make blow, but if you really love your country you must not lose objectiveness namely in such period. When one elucidates such problem, you must not be tendentious and if you can not justify your actions satisfactorily you must even undertake the function of an advocate to the president in order to form in the population the balanced, correct impression. .
Since too many negative was spoken about this fact, that is the experts from the opposition party did not miss any chance to make blows, I will try to bring somehow in balance these efforts of infringement of authority of the powers.
Of course precise numerical data dealing with this fact are not accessible for me, but I hope that it will not hinder me from making understandable the truth based on solid logic and from presenting it in clear form to the population for which this theme is unknown.
To begin with, I will state that when a country has its national currency bound with any solid currency, here economics has almost nothing to do. In this case we have to deal with the simplest arithmetic and evaluation of political purposefulness more.
To explain the scheme on a simple example let's suppose that I issued money and called it "Vano" which I bound with Euro with the initial exchange rate 1 Euro = 3 Vano. For it, I keep in safe 1000 Euro and launched into circulation 3000 Vano. Course of my currency is absolutely stable and I am always ready to exchange 3 Vano into 1 Euro. As a rule I have margin and make exchange, when selling, slightly at high cost and at buying –somewhat cheaper (similar to the exchange in any exchange office). At the expiration of certain term, if I don't take anything from my safe, the sum in the safe will grow. Say, I'll have 1500 Euro. It will depend on my "political" decision when in the circulation is still 3000 Vano, to take the new course of "balancing" as reference point 1 EURO = 2 Vano or leave the old course 1 EURO= 3 Vano and for it to take from the safe the excess, 500 EURO or to put in circulation additionally 1500 Vano (in this latter case I will have in the safe 1500 EURO, in the circulation – 4500 Vano – that is again three times more). As a reader can see, stability of my currency is not associated with my economical might. The only thing what is required here, and it will happen naturally, everything which sold for Vano only in my trade objects, should cost three times cheaper compared with EURO.
If we consider the same scheme in state scales, nothing much will changed. We must have in the national bank the untouched reserve of the solid currency to which our GEL is bound (in our case – dollar) for balancing GEL's mass which is in circulation and, alongside with the dollar, as far as I know, for the balance, with relatively less specific share, we can still use gold and even other stable currency, e.g. EURO and pound sterling bound to our stable and reliable economic environment (and not to currency of others).
In short if we possess in the form of security one milliard dollars, and we have in circulation 2 milliard GEL, and if we don't change them, at this time compulsory alteration of the exchange rate, as a rule can be conditioned only by the deficit in budget, that is, when budgetary expenditures will exceed the incomes, the sum should be deducted from the security, or the resources which are in turnover should be increased by "vacant" emission only (without security).
If this is approximately so, let's imagine it in the form of conditional figures, that in the national bank we had up 800 million dollars, 200 million EURO before the crisis, which equaled to 300 million dollars, 100 million pound sterling, which equaled to 200 million dollars and gold of 200 million dollars . This is equivalent to 1,5 milliard dollars. Resources in the circulation at the exchange rate of that time were 1,4 times more, that is, at about 2,1 milliard GEL.
Now after the so-called crisis, at the background of strengthening of the exchange rate of dollar on the base of even the above stated purchase and sale of oil, if we calculate again in conditional figures the same assets we will still have 800 million dollars, 200 million EURO, which now equals to a lesser sum, say 250 million dollars, 100 million pound sterling, which now equals to a lesser sum, say 150 million dollars and conditionally suffered double cheapening, now the same amount of gold of 100 million dollars, which in the sum total is less – is now equivalent of 1,3 milliard dollars, while in circulation we have 2,1 milliard GEL again.
It is clear that coefficient of the balance, that is objective course of GEL would suffer change and in case of taking real figures (which is unknown to me) I would not be surprised that the rate would reach namely 1,65, Here the government has to decide 1) to leave unchanged the old 1,4 exchange rate (for it they were to fill in the untouched reserve and when all other currencies were devaluated, artificially, possibly for teasing European politicians to keep old rate stubbornly; 2) or to declare the new objective balance rate, and to use the resources needed for restoration of old rate for the creation of minimal conditions for new currents of refugees. Of course I just surmise, but first of all, I offered this motif because the resources that were promised to them, as far as I know are late and the winter has approached. Spending of these resources would have been justified for many other designation (at oral calculations it equals to approximately 200-300 million dollars), but I can not share those loud demagogic declarations which state, that by this way, some persons in the government wormed their hands in organized manner. I will not share this opinion not because I believe in their pureness, but because neither of them personally could possess, so suddenly, such great volumes of free resources, kept in GEL and if they had such resources, such wide-scale conversions, made personally or in groups just before changing of exchange rate could not be done secretly. If anybody still has doubts in this respect, these facts can be checked up at any time, it is never late for it. Namely at the extension of this process leaking of the secret information about real point of balance and large scale speculations would be more possible. Masses of people would remain beyond it, all the same. In short, if we are principally unbiased, we should observe order from distance than disorder. The only thing that a man can imagine hypothetically, is that commercial banks, which get resources from international sources, at low interest, have loans in dollars have gained, those who had assets converted in dollars and had the obligations created due to deposits preferentially in GEL within the frames of the norm. In this case we will see that the situation of the banks will improve slightly and at the international arena our banks will retain relatively easily the image of honest and trustful partners even in the period of this crisis. A question arises: At who's expense? Of course at the expense of those who kept GEL for at least one year. They gained even without it (the present day rate 1,65 is better than the rate which was a year before – 1,7 and they had higher interest in GEL than they would get if they had deposits in dollars). The above stated clearly presents the objective image of the country, positively than negatively, locally and beyond its limits.
I would state also that if not the stabilization of exchange rate of dollar to GEL, the long-term agreement on the desirable price for the provision of gas would have been more complicated. One can put a question as to why I give so many favorable arguments for the powers in the present paper. I do it because today the opposition surpassed all permitted norms by its attitude. Among so many, personally known to me really sensible experts, according to my opinion, one can find three or four
persons, who led disputes in the interests of the country and its national currency. I consider it expedient to neutralize declarations equalized to crime when the "expert" declares publicly via television that he knows in what direction and up to what limit will be changed the rate of GEL, while in reality he has no objective grounds for stating it, and he knows nothing and can not know anything either. He knows just that by such declaration, if people believe him, he will make serious blow to GEL only, and he can possibly gain something too. Shortly, some consider that they are such "professionals" that in such ignorant audience as ours, one can fix handle from any side, even from the bottom.
Earlier I was permanently attacked by the journalists working on economical themes, but 10 years ago I put my foot bitterly on some persons, they did their best and mass media forgot me immediately. I found rest, but seldom, as in this case, already at my own initiative I come to light. According to my opinion, the new rate of GEL, on the contrary to their opinion, will even undergo stabilization than cheapening. Time will pass and it will become apparent who is right. Irrespective of the fact that I too have no state guarantees, on the base of objective data, I advise everybody to believe me and gain by it.
As to the war of August and the feeling of dissatisfaction, it became clear that our country is right in all cases, god supports us and finally we'll surely win. As to the new and possibly more insolent, still more heavy aggression we are threatened with, unfortunately it is more probable than not probable now.
I would like to add that even in the created reality everything does not start or end by integration into NATO or Euro Union. For example NATO is the union of the countries, which agree on definite civilized norms of existence and relations and he, who violates those norms will face joint activity of the countries integrated in it. Alongside with really refined norms declared by NATO, the humanity has agreed on the relatively all consuming, more widely recognized norms. That is, if the government of one country starts eating of people of other country, irrespective of all conditional associations, all countries of the world will be against that cannibal state. In the days which followed the war of August, thanks to the just position of our country, this attitude and position became apparent and it became clear that in the 21st century the world is not so unprotected, as it might seem to some pessimists, or if anybody desires to present the world as unprotected.
President of the
Investment Company "Vano & Company"
P.S. To say in the words of Javakhishvili (not that Javakhishvili) I am neither that Vano, nor the company of that Vano, nor the president of the company of that Vano, - simply
Vano Chkhaidze.
